IX - Fiscal Deficit and National Bankruptcy

The author poses the question of whether ruin will knock on Portugal's door and immediately affirms it will, with certainty.

The annual deficit grows with such corpulence that it threatens to crush the country under its weight.

Presents a table of deficit figures from 1864-1869 showing dramatic increases year over year, with the final year reaching nearly 7.6 billion réis.

Calculates the 1868-1869 deficit as nearly 50 percent of that year's actual revenue, demonstrating the severity of the fiscal imbalance.

Projects that the deficit for 1869-1870 likely exceeded 8 billion réis while revenues may have fallen due to political events.

Presents treasury account data showing steady increase in public spending over the five-year period from 1864-1869.

Provides a detailed breakdown by ministry showing average annual expenditure increase of 3.836 million réis over the second five-year period compared to the first.

Details the interest obligations on both internal and external consolidated debt, totaling over 10 billion réis.

Notes that according to Finance Minister Braamcamp's budget, certain titles should have been cancelled, but the author questions whether this actually occurred.

Argues that the actual cancellation of these titles cannot be verified due to lack of official documents, and suggests recent amortization consists of burning old papers and replacing them with new ones.

Asks whether given this financial picture, ruin can arrive quickly.

Confirms that ruin can and will occur, expressing regret that this situation exists.

Asserts that Portugal possesses internal elements to prevent the threatened financial ruin.

Notes that the Portuguese people hold accumulated securities, bank stocks, and company shares worth approximately 350 million réis that could be mobilized.

Proposes that putting accumulated wealth into productive circulation or redirecting floating debt capital toward land, commerce, and industry could stimulate national recovery.

Notes that in reality, commerce is withering, industry is retracting, and agriculture is declining despite these potential resources.

Emphasizes that Portugal possesses fertile soil, extensive colonies, continental territory for 10 million inhabitants, and borders three oceans.

Claims that Portugal's national fate depends on achieving budget equilibrium, warning that further years of accumulated deficits will lead to catastrophic bankruptcy.

Describes the abyss threatening the nation as offering two paths: bankruptcy and foreign domination (Iberia).

Suggests that only territorial property will be able to survive at the edge of the coming financial abyss.

Notes the deficit doubled in four years and projects continued exponential growth, asking if the nation can survive another four years at such a rate.

Criticizes that people anxiously ask only about ministerial appointments while ignoring the fundamental question of national survival.

Dismisses personal political questions as trivial compared to the existential question facing the nation.

Poses the question of who bears true responsibility and directs the nation to answer it for itself.